#25 - How Do You Make Sense of the Unbelievable?

In This Issue

• Making 2:11 Make Sense

• Bad marks happen

• Hating on asterisks

• Watching Hobbs Kessler

• Latest HS XC Results

• Little Things At The End

Making Sense of Unbelievable

The distance running world is still reeling from the news of Tigest Assefa’s new women’s marathon World Record of 2:11:53, a mind-blowing jump over what anyone might have expected in the event so soon. The Ethiopian, a former 800m star, became the first woman under 2:14, 2:13 and 2:12, all in one fell swoop.

Understandably, reactions are all over the place, and I’ve seen some very good discussions out there. While some people have attacked those who have expressed some skepticism, I believe it’s perfectly fair—in the case of an “unbelievable” performance, to ask How?

Let’s start with the obvious. Athletes in supershoes have been rewriting distance records left and right over the past few years. The shoes definitely work (more on this at the Michigan HS level in another issue). What we can’t exactly quantify is how much exactly they work, because it varies by athlete. (Though as one wise wag pointed out, if the 4% figure bandied about were right, she’s a 2:17 marathoner in old-school shoes.) The more pertinent question should revolve around the particular shoe she wore, a $500 single-use model, the Adizero Adios Pro Evo 1. Just how much faster is it than the more reasonably-priced models from various manufacturers that most of the other marathoners are wearing?

The next subject under the “How?” heading is the talent of the athlete herself. Some have cast doubt on her legitimacy as a runner by pointing out her limited experience with the marathon itself. This was only her third. She started with a 2:34:01 in Saudi Arabia in early ‘22. That fall she ran 2:15:37 at Berlin. And now she’s returned to Berlin to go 3:44 faster. That somehow, some are saying, makes her suspicious. Yet any student of the marathon is familiar with African runners in established training groups popping off much more impressive debut marathons. Experience isn’t always required. Case in point: the fastest-ever debut marathon ever for a man is 2:01:53. And for a woman it’s 2:17:20.

Rather, Assefa’s running history shows that she started out as an 800 runner, and has far more speed in her than perhaps any other female marathoner ever. I haven’t done the research, but have any marathoners run faster than her 1:59.24 for 800m (or 54.05 for 400)? Can an athlete have both speed and the capacity for tremendous endurance? Is she the best ever in that category? Perhaps.

Then there’s the elephant in the room. Is she dirty? Is she on drugs? Some will castigate me for even putting the thought in print. Others are saying, “Duh, go figure.” Arriving at any sort of functional truth is a bit more complex than those responses. Let’s start here: drugs are real, and there are runners who use them (not most, and perhaps not many). We (okay, the Athletics Integrity Unit/AIU) don’t catch them all. For a World Record to stand, the athlete must pass a drug test. Those tests aren’t 100% effective, but they’re a start. Assefa gave her sample shortly after she crossed the finish line. Oftentimes, a doped athlete isn’t caught at their moment of glory, but in the following years, when they slip up and are nailed by a random test (the knock on the door) or by a biological passport anomaly. If that were to happen in this case, the doubters can scream at us, “WE TOLD YOU SO!”

For now, and perhaps for all time, the fair thing to do is assume she’s not doped. Yes, it’s okay to celebrate a woman putting together an unbelievable accomplishment. If you have trouble with that, pretend for a second that she’s not African. Pretend that she’s your favorite American runner. Would you feel the same way?

Bad Marks Happen

Yeah, sometimes the authorities have to throw out performances because something is off. Maybe the athlete was dirty (Ben Johnson’s 100m World Record from 1988). Or maybe the course was short (Agnes Ngetich’s recent 10K road WR of 29:24). Or maybe some corrupt official faked a measurement (Giovanni Evangelisti at the 1987 Worlds long jump).

Bad marks happen at all levels. Part of my job at Michtrack is to sort out the good from the bad. It helps to have a good BS detector. I like to think that my skills in that area have been nationally recognized. For two of the U.S. Olympic Trials, I was the guy appointed to go through every entry mark and deny the fake ones (and you would truly be surprised at how many fake marks are submitted!).

One of my Michigan examples comes from 40 years ago—though really, it was last year that I noted that I didn’t have meet-site-date details on one of the great marks on our girls long jump all-time list. But I did have access to all the old newspapers from the town in question, where they published results of every meet for the high school team. The mark originally had been submitted to a statewide honor roll. But when I went through every one of that girl’s meets, I found that she never came within 18 inches of that mark. So I deleted her from the list. She’s in her late 50s somewhere, and probably doesn’t realize she’s been booted, but fair is fair.

The other one comes from the last two seasons, and it’s very disappointing to me. It was a completely fake mark. The summer meet director who invented a mark for this athlete didn’t realize that there was a public record of the athlete competing in another (far away) state at the same time. I asked the athlete if he could clarify; no response. I haven’t got around to sorting out the lists and making all the deletions this will require, mainly because I now have to go through all of this director’s meets for the last X years and see if there are any other bogus marks. It will be a huge task—and that’s what winter’s for.

Watching Hobbs This Weekend

Hobbs Kessler will be representing Team USA this Sunday in the World Road Racing Championships in Riga, Latvia. It should be a fun experience and when he gets back, we can quiz him on how much Latvian he can speak.

World Athletics is providing a free livestream. Just click on the previous sentence that’s a different color. That’s a link, as we say in the business. The Men’s Road Mile starts at 4:30am Eastern Time on Sunday (yeah, that’s a brutal time to get up, but waddya gonna do?). You have to pre-register to get the stream, but it’s okay. They’re not going to try to sell you an extension of your car warranty later on. (Note that the schedules are goofed up, even on the website. All of the elite races take place on Sunday, October 1).

Please Quit Asterisking Records!!!

If you follow USATF on Twitter (I’m refusing to call it X still), you will have noticed that every time that an American Record falls, they have to include “*pending verification by the USATF records committee".

I hate that! I’m not the only one. Once I tweeted to complain about it and the tweet was liked by one of the people that does the USATF tweeting. I’m guessing a clearly-overpaid lawyer told them they absolutely must include the asterisk.

From a sports marketing perspective, the asterisk is clearly stupid. I mean, really! If the athlete was doped, or the course was short, or whatever, just take the record away later! But the initial announcement should be one of pure joy, not pure-joy-with-a lawyer’s-asterisk. Of course the record goes away if it doesn’t check out! We all get that! Can you imagine watching a football game on TV and they announce that so-and-so just broke some historic rushing record and then a whiny legal voice comes on and says “pending verification by a group of old men several months from now”????

Latest HS XC Results

Results of my request for feedback on this section—all were requests for me to continue including it. As always, for full results, just click on the title of the meet.

Soter-Crane Invite (9/20):
Boys—1. L’Anse Creuse N 36; 2. Country Day 70; 3. Dearborn DC 75 (10 teams)
1. Dylan Penberthy (LCN) 16:36
2. Brandon Penberthy (LCN) 16:45
3. Jacob Hopkins (DCD) 16:48
Girls—1. Divine Child 25; 2. Country Day 54; 3. Oak Park 69 (8 teams)
1. Kylee King (OP) 20:16
2. Kathryn Kurtinaitis (DDC) 20:47
3. Kirstin Koss (DDC) 20:47

OK Blue Jamboree #1 (9/20):
Boys—1. Allendale 34; 2. Holland Christian 57; 3. Spring Lake 65 (8 teams)
1. Will Engbers (HC) 16:23
2. Kilian Whalen (Allendale) 16:24
Girls—1. Spring Lake 29; 2. Holland Christian 62; 3. Hudsonville UC 71 (8 teams)
1. Kyla Meyers (SL) 19:33
2. Tatum Dykstra (Fruitport) 19:36
3. Alexis Kotkowicz (SL) 19:37

SMAC West #1 (9/20):
Boys—1. Portage Central 19; 2. St Joseph 60 (5 teams)
1. Logan Begeman (PC) 16:07
Girls—1. St Joseph 37; 2. Portage C 51 (5 teams)
1. Gail Vaikutis (SJ) 19:02
2. Elena Figueroa (SJ) 19:02

CAAC Blue #1 (9/21):
Boys—1. Okemos 42; 2. DeWitt 60; 3. Grand Ledge 65 (7 teams)
1. Nolan Inglis (D) 16:35
2. Ian Morgan (O) 16:40
Girls—1. Okemos 27; 2. DeWitt 61 (5 teams)
1. Lily Salazar (O) 19:31
2. Shannon Gillahan (O) 19:44

Jackson Invitational (9/23):
Boys Orange—1. AA Pioneer 138; 2. Troy 141; 3. Clarkston 175; 4. WL Lakeland 181; 5. Macomb Dakota 198; 6. Romeo 199; 7. Churchill 223 (29 teams)
1. Vishvaa Ravishankar (Troy) 15:12
2. Kamari Ronfeldt (AAP) (grade 9) 15:14
3. Aiden Moore (BC Lakeview) 15:16
4. Sebastian Ramirez (Royal Oak) 15:23
5. Brandon Anderson (Dexter) 15:27
6. Vincent Guaresimo (Romeo) 15:27
7. Kian Schneeweis (Troy) 15:38”
8. Jack McGregor (Howell) 15:38
Boys Purple—1. Adrian 27; 2. Parma Western 57; 3. Sault Ste Marie 82 (7 teams)
1. Braylon Petty (Adrian) 15:51
2. Gabe Litzner (Sault) 15:54
3. Moises Salazar (Adrian) 16:17
Boys Red—1. Hillsdale Academy 82; 2. Hanover-Hortono 85; 3. Jackson LC 108 (16 teams)
1. Isaiah Dinverno (JLC) 15:57
2. Mitchell Hiatt (Onsted) 16:11
3. Thomas Holm (HA) 16:16
Girls Orange—1. Romeo 57; 2. AA Pioneer 111; 3. Brighton 121; 4. Northville 162; 5. Saline 167; 6. Otsego 191; 7. WL Lakeland 293 (29 teams)
1. Rachel Forsyth (AAP) 16:37
2. Jayden Harberts (Dakota) 17:48
3. Annie Hrabovsky (Romeo) 17:54
4. Natalia Guaresimo (Romeo) 18:00
5. Emmerson Clor (Romeo) 18:16
6. Cassie Garcia (Northville) 18:16
7. Morgan Brown (Churchill) 18:16
8. Ella Christensen (Northville) 18:17
Girls Purple—1. AA Richard 50; 2. Parma Western 66; 3. Sturgis 70 (7 teams)
1. Sophy Skeels (Adrian) 19:02
2. Ayda Skeels (Adrian) 19:24
3. Berkley Holtz (Sturgis) 19:28
Girls Red—1. Jackson LC 45; 2. Leslie 90; 3. Whitmore Lake 103 (15 teams)
1. Madison Osterberg (JLC) 18:04
2. Kaylie Livingston (WL) 18:10
3. Emmry Ross (Onsted) 18:11

Cougar Falcon Invite (9/23):
Boys Eagle—1. Holland W Ottawa 71; 2. FH Central 82; 3. FH Northern 93 (10 teams)
1. Jaxon Allen (Reeths-Puffer) 16:11
2. Shay White (St Joseph) 16:18
3. Sawyer McCarthyu (FHC) 16:22
Boys Cougar—1. GR Christian 35; 2. Fremont 84; 3. Holland Christian 88 (10 teams)
1. Sean Pettis (F) 15:25
2. Simon Triezenberg (GRC) 15:33
3. Will Engbers (HC) 16:08
4. Keegan Hoekstra (GRC) 16:13
Boys Falcon—1. GRTC Peregrines 53; 2. Hart 56; 3. Saugatuck 100 (8 teams)
1. Bob Jazwinski (H) 15:38
2. Keith Siek (Berrien Co Youth) 16:47
Girls Eagle—1. FH Central 44; 2. St Joseph 49; 3. FH Northern 103 (9 teams)
1. Gail Vaikutis (SJ) 17:43
2. Elena Figueroa (SJ) 17:44
3. Clara James-Heer (FHC) 18:08
Girls Cougar—1. GRC 28; 2. Holland Christian 65; 3. Ludington 82 (9 teams)
1. Natalie VanOtteren (GRC) 17:36
2. Summer Brower (Ludington) 18:24
3. Emily Tomes (GR Catholic) 18:33
4. Ellie Scholma (GRC) 18:38
Girls Falcon—1. Peregrines 28; 2. Lansing Catholic 57; 3. Hart 80 (7 teams)
1. Jessica Jazwinski (H) 17:13
2. Stephanie DiPiazza (Peregrines) 17:58
3. Tessa Roe (LC) 18:22

Cleverly Friday Night (9/22):
Boys—1. Anchor Bay 69; 2. Yale 78; 3. Detroit Catholic C 104 (24 teams)
1. Thomas Westphal (AB) 16:12
2. Brewer Snay (Macomb LN) 16:31
3. Raymond Lucero (Lk Orion) 16:33
Girls—1. Warren Regina 42; 2. Croswell-Lex 78; 3. Macomb LN 97 (15 teams)
1. Eva Thompson (CL) 19:53
2. Morgan Newton (CL) 20:20

Mott Fall Classic (9/23):
Boys—1. Brighton 30; 2. WL Northern 62; 3. Rochester Adams 105 (16 teams)
1. Ty Parker (WLN) 16:01
2. Taye Levenson (BH) 16:02
3. Tyler Langley (B) 16:21
Girls—1. WL Northern 65; 2. Grand Blanc 80; 3. Stoney Creek 97 (14 teams)
1. Grace Tykocki (GB) 19:43
2. Addison Herr (Bloomfield H) 19:54
3. Layla Krayem (Livonia Stevenson) 20:01

Monroe Jefferson Invitational (9/23):
Boys D1—1. Canton 27; 2. AA Huron 35 (5 teams)
1. Steven Dusseau (C) 16:39
Girls D1—1. Brighton 31; 2. Monroe 68; 3. Saline 76 (5 teams)
1. Eleanor Grant (Wyandotte R) 20:07
2. Cayla Marzban (B) 20:22

Linden Classic (9/23):
Boys—1. Milford 30; 2, Dryden 37; 3. Unionville-Sebewaing 63 (17 teams)
1. Kyle O’Rourke (M) 16:14
2. Nolan Pinion (Lk Fenton) 16:36
Girls—1. Novi Christian 36; 2. Unionville-S 36; 3. Linden 38 (13 teams)
1. Nina Frost (Fenton) 19:57
2. Maria Nunning (Pontiac ND) 20:21

Bangor Invitational (9/23):
Boys—1. Plainwell 29; 2. Kalamazoo Homeschool 107 (18 teams)
1. Henry Cox (P) 16:37
Girls—1. Gobles 78; 2. Paw Paw 102 (15 teams)
1. Libby Smith (G) 19:15
2. Caroline Randall (Hastings) 19:42

OK Gold Jamboree #2 (9/26 Yankee Springs)
Boys—1. Forest Hills Eastern 45; 2. GR Catholic 74;. 3. Cedar Springs 89 (8 teams)
1. Liam Walters (GROH) 16:23
2. Ethan Shoffner (CS) 16:25
3. Jeb Hillary (GRC) 16:36
Girls—1. Middleville TK 63; 2. GR South Christian 73; 3. GR Ottawa Hills 73 (7 teams)
1. Selma Anderson (GROH) 18:58
2. Emily Tomes (GRC) 19:15
3. Ellia Agar (GRSC) 19:23

SVL North Jamboree #2 (9/26 Stratford Woods)
Boys—1. Bay City Western 25; 2. Midland Dow 47; 3. Saginaw Heritage 72 (6 teams)
1. Noah Selveraj (BCW) 16:12”
2. Colin MacGregor (MD) 16:34
3. John Blaskowski (SH) 16:43
Girls—1. BCW 25; 2. Midland Dow 51; 3. Midland 62 (5 teams)
1. Katie Watkins (MD) 18:22
2. Isabelle Becker (BCW) 19:36
3. Jaclyn Suderman (BCW) 20:06

SVL South Jamboree (9/26):
Boys—1. Flint Powers 30; 2. Davison 40 (4 teams)
1. Iain Forrest (D) 15:58
2. David Murphy (FP) 16:10
Girls—1. Davison 27; 2. Grand Blanc 37 (4 teams)
1. Grace Tykocki (GB) 19:05
2. Paige McArdle (D) 19:36

MAC White Jamboree #2 (9/26):
Boys—1. L’Anse Creuse N 64; 2. PH Northern 66; 3. Utica Ford 75 (8 teams)
1. Dylan Penberthy (LCN) 16:43
2. Jack DwWaele (Chippewa Valley) 16:50
Girls—1. Fraser 18; 2. Chippewa Valley 77; 3. SCS Lakeview 96 (8 teams)
1. Remi Flanz (F) 20:49
2. Katelyn Frazier (F) 20:49

Little Things

Molly Brennan: one of the early stars of MHSAA track & field for girls, and later a big performer for MSU, Brennan has been named the Spartan’s Homecoming Grand Marshall.

D2 National Athlete of the Week: Those honors from the USTFCCCA went to Ithaca alum Ransom Allen, now running for Wayne State. Last weekend the Wayne State senior won the Maroon (smaller schools) race at the big Griak Invitational in Minneapolis.

Lundberg Nominated: As part of the 50th anniversary celebration for the NCAA’s Division II, the NCAA released its list of 100 nominees for its Gold Award. Longtime Hillsdale coach Bill Lundberg, the man who put the school on the track/XC map, has been rightfully included. A 2-time competitor in the Olympic Trials steeplechase himself, he coached the Chargers to 25 GLIAC championships. I can happily add that from the day I first met him many years ago, Bill has always impressed me as one of the kindest, friendliest people I have ever known in this sport.

Next week: You might get the newsletter early, you might get it late. All I know is that I will be someplace on Earth where I will apparently have zero Internet. And that, I believe, is better for my mental health than being a slave to the competition schedule.